We have not grasped this at all. Nothing is moving which operates over the height of, say, a double decker bus. If, that is, you can get on one. It is not a question of a later flight, or even tomorrow or even the day after tomorrow. Europe is grounded – and we are all going to stay grounded for a while yet. I have never come across this – even after the calamity of New York, there was something that could be done, we knew, at least, that in a few days time something could be done. Now, we don’t.

There is a great mass of humantity which stretches across the continent of Europe, indeed, of our globe who all wish to be somewhere else and that somewhere else, is home. We cannot, at this stage, even think about starting a new venture.

So what will we discover? Air travel, at best, for anyone who travels cattle class, is a miserable experience. Even before you start, you are faced with long lists of what you cannot do, followed by long queues, followed by more people telling what you cannot do, followed by being confined to your seat, followed by more queues, followed by people assuming that you are hard, psychotic terrorist until you can prove otherwise, followed by…… To get home, you have to do it all again. America is wondering why their tourism is down, airlines wonder the same.

I should add that it is different for the budget airlines – they do exactly what they say on the tin, and no more – we have come to accept that – so for them the issue is not as dire.

Coupled with this, air travel has now demonstrated it’s vulnerabilities. Air travel was always vulnerable to extremes of weather; now it also is vulnerable through strike action, it is vulnerable through acts of terror – now it has shown that it is vulnerable through it’s own technology. Aircraft engines are designed to fly at x thousand feet or they use too much petrol. They are not designed to cope with ash in the high atmosphere – although the famous case of the Jumbo came through, having gone right into an ash cloud – as technology advances, it becomes more sensitive – more fickle, even – we do not realise this until an event such as this occurs – and this is a great failing of technology – it may be clever, but it is not robust. If British Airways had kept a few Vickers Viscounts knocking about the place, many may be able to get home. Think of cars, a battery failure on a modern car means you are stuck – in the old days, you just got out the starting handle.

The increasingly vulnerable nature of air travel coupled with the unpleasant general experience is a poisonous brew. The vulnerabilities may, in some measure, be addressed. The experience – the “holistic travel experience” can be easily dealt with. Airlines, however, choose not to. Indeed, with things like unbundling of fares, they are intent on making that experience even worse.

Then there is the matter of choice. People can choose which airline to fly on and all airlines compete. What may have been missed, is that people may choose simply not to travel, unless absolutely necessary. Worse, it may be the premium traffic that decides not to travel. Not because of cost (though that is an important aspect) simply because it is all simply too much like hard work. What is dangerous for airlines, is that firms may discover that they can manage very well without having people flitting about the place. After all, global business managed to get on before the advent of mass air travel. Firms may decide that a person based at an outpost, with greater executive powers, is a better way of doing things than someone having to go there all the time. An example of this (on a different level, of course!) was British “Gunboat Diplomacy” where decisions were made and actions taken by young naval officers without the benefit of even being able to telephone a higher authority. It actually worked rather well (at the time).

Then we will have the knock on – and for the airline business, this just adds to the cost. Premium traffic can just decide not to travel. Premium traffic has the financial ability to hole up in a nice, comfortable hotel and wait until it is all over, premium traffic has satphones, communications technology, a yacht that it may be able to call on – even a mate with a light aircraft. What airlines have to deal with, when the skies re-open, is us normal people. People on cheap tickets, away with the family, on charter flights, who now have maxed out credit cards, no cash and are sleeping at terminals. Premium traffic does not want to travel in amongst all this – so they wait. Revenue not only falls, but airlines then have to spend money flying with aircraft full of people whom they may even have to pay, rather, compensate, for being on board.

This is not the end, not even the begining of the end. In realising how vulnerable air travel is and by realising how miserable air travel is for many people – and above all, by doing something about those aspects – it may just be the end of the beginning.